Looking Forward to 2020!

Posted on Posted in Burlington, Market Commentary

First off, may all of us at Accurate Appraisals & Heritage Caledon Realty wish everyone a most festive holiday season.

Secondly, did you know that the next decade has been labelled the “Yold”. To elaborate, for the first time, mankind will have more people over the age of 60 than individuals under 20 years of age.

Fittingly or not, it is not so surprising to discover that 2020 is also the Year of the Nurse.

The summer of 2020 will see Tokyo host the Olympics; this enormous event will be preceded by 12 European nations hosting the UEFA championship mid-June through mid-July. By late October, Dubai will be hosting the World Expo, which is presently publicized to be the world’s greatest show ever!

If terrestrial interests are proving to be modestly mundane, then look to the heavens. At least 5 countries; America, China, Russia, United Arab Emirates and the European Union will launch probes to Mars. Our two planets will be nearing their perihelion points of orbit over the next few years.

Commercially, many economies will continue to wrestle with interest rate negativity. Financial institutions, especially those with headquarters in Europe, will struggle with below zero interest rates.

These historically low borrowing rates will continue to fuel unprecedented levels of consumer spending, especially in North America. This in turn will continue to push upwards the economies of several of the G7 nations.

Equity markets will experience exaggerated levels of volatility because of trade deal insecurity.

Most importantly “the year ahead will be dominated by America`s presidential election”. The political maelstrom will likely grow in viciousness. Mr. Trump will definitely look for all types of scapegoats. Likely vilifying any companies that generate layoffs or talk about relocating. There is strong chance that he will besiege Jerome Powell and the federal reserve, demanding a continuation of a low interest rate policy. Simultaneously, demanding more tax cuts from congress and denouncing congress when they fail to pass before this legislature.

There is a strong probability that the Trump administration will succeed in signing a mini trade deal with China. The Catch 22 of these mini trade deals, is that many of the tariffs and levies will remain. , demonstrating his resolute determination to limit China`s access to America`s technology.

These half measure trade deals will most likely create wobbles in the largest world`s economies. Europe will likely feel it first due in part to the ubiquitous nature of negative interest rates and their reliance on foreign demand. Plus a conservative party election will again push Brexit to the forefront of the public psyche and intensify trade talks between Great Britain and the European union, thus, creating further disruption in the supply chain of numerous companies, both large and small.

Canada will continue to grow, albeit at a far slower pace than the preceding decade. If Political populism becomes mainstream, then levels of immigration will sputter. This combined with several of the preceding points will create further headwinds for the domestic economy.

New leadership south of the border may or may not help reorient the political dynamics of the world`s largest economy. However for the sake of our grandchildren one would sincerely hope that our Blue Planet can collectively strive for a grander vision that better encompasses all citizens.

May everyone have a fabulous, healthy and prosperous New Year!

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