Following a turbulent 2025 shaped by economic uncertainty and political shifts, Canada’s housing market is poised for a period of recalibration in 2026. According to the 2026 Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, modest price growth and increased sales activity are expected nationwide as buyers gradually re-enter the market.
Royal LePage’s annual forecast, which includes year-over-year price projections and expert insights at both the national level and across ten major Canadian markets, points to improving fundamentals that are restoring confidence among consumers.
Improving Conditions Support Market Stability
Lower interest rates, increased housing supply, and reduced competition are creating a more balanced environment for buyers and sellers alike. Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, describes 2026 as a rare opportunity for consumers—particularly first-time buyers and those in Canada’s most expensive regions.
“Solid market fundamentals – including lower interest rates, increased supply, and reduced competition – have created a more favourable environment for consumers,” said Soper. “While we don’t expect a sharp rebound, this improved affordability will rebuild market confidence and set the stage for more sustainable, albeit modest, price growth in 2026.”
Rather than a rapid recovery, Royal LePage anticipates a gradual and healthier market adjustment, marked by steady demand and cautious optimism.
National Price Forecasts
At the national level, home prices are expected to see limited but positive movement:
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The aggregate price of a home in Canada is forecast to increase 1.0% year over year by the fourth quarter of 2026.
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Single-family detached homes are projected to rise 2.0% year over year.
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Condominium prices, however, are expected to decline 2.5%, reflecting continued affordability pressures and elevated supply in certain urban markets.
These trends suggest that detached housing may outperform condos as buyers prioritize space and long-term value.
Regional Market Performance
Significant variation is expected across major Canadian markets:
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Greater Toronto Area: Aggregate home prices are forecast to decline 4.5%.
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Greater Vancouver Area: Prices are expected to fall 3.5%.
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Greater Montreal Area: In contrast, prices are projected to rise 5.0%, driven by relative affordability and steady demand.
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Quebec City: Once again, Quebec City leads the country, with the highest forecasted price growth at 12.0% in 2026.
This divergence highlights the importance of local market dynamics, with affordability and supply conditions playing a central role in shaping outcomes.
Looking Ahead
While 2026 is unlikely to bring a dramatic rebound, the Royal LePage forecast suggests the Canadian housing market is entering a more stable and predictable phase. Improved affordability, easing borrowing costs, and increased inventory are expected to encourage cautious buyers back into the market, laying the groundwork for long-term sustainability.
For buyers and sellers alike, 2026 may represent a strategic window—one defined less by urgency and more by opportunity and informed decision-making.